The Road to Copenhagen: Less than 40 days to go

Major global meetings have been taking place over the last month, in and outside the formal UN climate change process. But with less than 40 days to go now, the COP15 conference in Copenhagen this December is starting to come into view.

Last month’s climate change summit in New York showed some gain in political momentum, though a further preparatory UN meeting in Bangkok highlight the remaining presence of a gap between developed and developing countries, seemingly based above all on a mutual lack of trust. The main differences in thought are:

Should a new legal instrument be introduced to replace Kyoto and be the foundation for a binding and comprehensive international agreement on climate?
This is what the EU would like, primarily to bring the US into the new arrangements, but the proposal met with some resistance at Bangkok. The rest of the developing world is suspicious of developed countries aiming to dodge ambitious new post-2012 targets. The approach was further undermined by the US freely acknowledging that they will be in no position to commit to any binding agreement.
Unfortunately there has been little progress on agreeing mid-term targets for developed countries and commitments from developing countries. Norway brightened the political landscape by pledging an impressive 40% cut in 2020 compared with 1990 levels, but in general the impasse remains
Financing discussions for climate mitigation and adaptation, essentially the wealth transfer from the developed to the developing world to finance climate actions, are still focussed on the institutions necessary to administer funds rather than concrete pledges themselves.

What can we hope to see from Copenhagen?

We have reason for remaining optimistic: a “successful” Copenhagen declaration can still be made if the outcome were roughly as follows:

A strong political declaration is made to agree a way forward on how to address the post-2012 Kyoto period, which must include targets and actions
A process is agreed on management of climate adaptation funds
An agreement is made to continue existing and new financial market mechanisms post-2012
A process is discussed that sees common international standards for measuring, reporting and verifying emission reductions
An agreement is made to tackle deforestation through a global international mechanism

There is still time for significant and necessary breakthroughs to be made at a political level. It will require strong leadership and continued pressure from people across the world.